A Brief Analysis Of The Tax Smoothing Hypothesis In Turkey

Mesut KARAKAS, Taner Taner, Halit YANIKKAYA


This study examines the existence of tax smoothing in the case of Turkey using data for the time period between 1923 and 2011. Unit root tests, auto-regression and vector auto-regression (VAR) models are applied to tax rates, government expenditures and real output data. Unit root tests and auto-regression results initially point out the existence of tax smoothing in Turkey. However, further in-depth analyses by means of the vector auto-regression model provide strong evidence against the tax smoothing hypothesis for the Turkish case as contemporary tax rates can be predicted with using lagged values of tax rates and government spending rates.


tax smoothing; vector autoregression model; optimal taxation; public debt management; Turkey

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